Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
